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Tracking the spread of dengue fever: Domestic networks drive rapid transmission of human infection
Friday, January 25, 2013The mosquitoes that spread dengue fever tap into the domestic networks of humans, along with their bloodstreams, finds a study recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The data from Iquitos, Peru, shows that the trail of the most rapid transmission of human infections does not lead through large, public gathering places, as might be expected, but from house-to-house, as people visit nearby friends and relatives.
"It's common in a dengue fever outbreak to first treat public places like schools for mosquitoes, but our results show the focus needs to be on residential networks," says disease ecologist Gonzalo Vazquez-Prokopec.
Vazquez-Prokopec and Uriel Kitron, both from Emory University's department of environmental studies, conducted the spatial-temporal analysis as co-authors of the study, led by Steve Stoddard and Thomas Scott from the University of California, Davis. The research is part of a major, ongoing dengue project that also includes scientists from the U.S. Navy; the University of Iowa; Tulane University; San Diego State; and researchers in Peru.
"On a global scale, human air travel is known as a driver of dengue virus circulation, but this is the first time we've quantified the powerful impact of human movement on the small scale of neighborhoods," Vazquez-Prokopec says.
The tropical disease is caused by a virus that is passed from the blood of one person to another through the bites of mosquitoes. Also known as "break-bone fever," dengue causes debilitating pain leading to the hospitalization of many sufferers. Severe cases can be fatal.
"It is vicious, and rapidly growing as a threat," Vazquez-Prokopec says.
During the last 50 years, the incidence of dengue has increased 30-fold and more than half the world's population is now at risk. The World Health Organization estimates that 50-100 million dengue infections occur each year. That number is expected to rise as the climate warms and the trend toward urbanization continues.
During 2009 and 2010, dengue fever emerged for the first time in decades in the contiguous United States, when an outbreak in the Florida Keys led to 93 cases.
The dengue virus is complex and has at least four different serotypes. Each time a person is infected with one serotype, it raises the risk that they will become more severely ill if infected by a different serotype.
"There is no vaccine for dengue. The only way to control outbreaks is to kill the vectors ? mosquitoes," Vazquez-Prokopec says. Many of the places affected have poor public health infrastructure, he adds, so it's critical to identify the most effective places to spray for the insects.
A 2009 outbreak of dengue in Iquitos killed at least 24 people and drove almost 1,000 sufferers to the hospital, where cots had to be set up in stairwells and hallways to handle the flood of patients.
A city of 400,000 located deep in the Amazonian rain forest, Iquitos is essentially an island, only accessible by boat or plane. The city has high unemployment, and the housing is often substandard. Water is stored in open containers in crowded homes that lack air-conditioning, or even window screens. These factors make the homes havens for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the primary vector for the dengue virus. These mosquitoes feast almost exclusively on human blood, bite during the day, and have a limited flight range of about 100 meters.
To study how the dengue virus spreads through Iquitos, the researchers tracked and mapped outbreak patterns of two large neighborhoods, encompassing hundreds of homes, over several years. When a case of dengue was confirmed through a blood test, social workers would interview the patient, recording all the places the patient went during the 15 days leading up to the onset of fever. Mosquitos were collected from as many of these locations as possible and tested to determine if they carried the virus.
The data from interviews of 2,000 people was plotted over time and space using geographic information systems (GIS) technology.
"People appear to be getting infected most often in homes, but not necessarily their own homes," Vazquez-Prokopec says. "The main driver is people visiting friends and relatives in nearby homes."
Interviews with dengue patients revealed that two-thirds of them had visited the same location.
"We suspect that the importance of human movement that we observed in Iquitos will hold in other populations and for other pathogens transmitted by the mosquitos that spread dengue," Vazquez-Prokopec says. "The findings provide a different way for thinking about how a vector-borne pathogen may spread through a population, and have implications for better disease surveillance and control."
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Emory University: http://www.emory.edu
Thanks to Emory University for this article.
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New home sales fell 7.3 percent month-over-month to 369K.Last month's number was revised up to 398K, for 9.3 percent.
December new home sales were up 8.8 percent from a year ago.
The median sales prices of new homes sold in December was $248,900.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 151,000, which represents a supply of 4.9 months at the current sales rate.
An estimated 367,000 new homes were sold in 2012, up 19.9 percent from a year ago.
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New home sales for December will be out at 10 a.m. ET.
Analysts polled by Bloomberg are looking for sales to rise to an annual rate of 385 K.
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While housing has been called the only bright spot in the U.S. economy, some are concerned that new home sales haven't been as strong and could add to inventory.
Millan Mulraine at TD Securities wrote:
The new homes market has been a laggard in the overall housing market recovery, and while new homebuilding and existing home sales activity have risen significantly from their lows, new home sales have yet to enjoy a similar turnaround in fortune.
Remember decline in inventory (existing and new homes) is one of the key things propping up home prices. Moreover analysts caution about seasonality in interpreting year-end data.
"Inventory typically falls at the end of the year and picks up again in Q1 in anticipation of the spring selling season," according to Bank of America's Michelle Meyer.
New home sales measure newly constructed homes where sales have closed. Investors watch this data because it offers insight on the health of consumer and the economy.
SEE ALSO: 12 States Where Homeowners Are Deep Underwater On Their Mortgages >
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/december-new-home-sales-2013-1
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By KIPP ROBERTSON
North Kitsap Herald Education/Sports Reporter
January 11, 2013 ? Updated 2:42 PM?
POULSBO ? Gregory St. Peter wants to pick up right where Chris May left off with the North Kitsap Vikings boys varsity team.
St. Peter was hired as the head coach Thursday night during the North Kitsap School Board?s regular meeting. St. Peter transitions from assistant coach to head coach, following May?s resignation.
Two days of tryouts for the boys? spring soccer season begins Feb. 25.
St. Peter, a graduate of North Kitsap High School, has coached the team for nine years. He also coaches a U-12 girls soccer team with the North Kitsap Soccer Club for about two years.
The newest head coach is also a veteran on the field, having played with the Vikings in high school and later playing with FC Kitsap Premier Soccer Club ? now WestSound FC. St. Peter played soccer since the age of 6, he said.
St. Peter would like to see the 2013 team make a State appearance, and get past that first round, he said.
The 2012 team fell short of a State berth in the West Central District III tournament. The Vikings lost to White River 4-3 in a playoff home game at North Kitsap Stadium.
St. Peter said postseason play becomes a mental game. There is a lot to distract high school seniors from the team?s goal. It comes down to preparation and understanding what it means to the team, he said.
But postseason is a season away.
St. Peter expects 40 or more people to try out for the team. Though many varsity players graduated after the 2012 season, St. Peter said there is a good amount of returning underclassmen who will be solid players.
Though he?s laid back and likes to have fun, St. Peter also wants to keep things serious on the field. Players, he said, improve more when they enjoy what they?re doing.
?I?m looking forward to it,? St. Peter said of coaching in the spring.
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Contact North Kitsap Herald Education/Sports Reporter Kipp Robertson at krobertson@northkitsapherald.com or (360) 779-4464.Source: http://feeds.soundpublishing.com/~r/nkhsports/~3/kw_vnX3i7xQ/186543071.html
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LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is deploying a back-up ship navigation system in the English Channel, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, to tackle the growing risks of disruptions of vessel satellite devices and jamming by criminal gangs.
Mariners increasingly rely on global navigation systems that use satellite signals to find a location or keep exact time. One of the most well known is the Global Positioning System or GPS.
The General Lighthouse Authorities of the United Kingdom and Ireland (GLA) this week launched a radio-based back-up system called eLoran to counter the threats of jamming or signal loss of GPS devices. Ships will need to install receiver equipment.
"When a sat nav goes out, it matters a lot to have something secure to fall back on," David Last, special adviser to the GLA, said. "It (eLoran) is an almost perfect back-up."
If its GPS system ceases to function, a ship risks running aground or colliding with other vessels.
Last said all GPS systems run the risk of signal loss due to solar weather effects. Also cheap jamming devices are widely available in Britain and have been used by criminal gangs to disable tracking systems on high-value stolen cars.
"There have been major incidents in which North Korea has jammed GPS in South Korea. The outcome is that they lost not just ship navigation, but it affected all of their mobile phone networks and their military systems. We do know terrorists have been arrested in the U.S. with GPS jamming equipment," Last said. "So GPS is very vulnerable."
The eLoran system works on earth-based radio systems to provide alternative position and timing signals for navigation, Last said.
It has been deployed in the Dover area, which includes the Dover Strait waterway in the English Channel, through which an average of 500 ships pass daily.
"We are picking up significant modes of jamming in the UK including in the Dover area," Last said.
The Dover installation is the first of up to seven to be rolled-out along Britain's east coast, including the ports of Middlesbrough in England and Grangemouth and Aberdeen in Scotland, the GLA said.
Passenger line P&O Ferries has already installed the equipment on one of its vessels.
"Satellite navigation systems are vulnerable to degradation of signal strength, and our ships have also experienced occasional loss of signal," Simon Richardson, head of safety management at P&O Ferries, said.
"We see eLoran as the most effective solution to countering the problem."
(editing by Jane Baird)
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/british-waterway-deploys-ship-safety-aid-combat-gps-134652557.html
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